...about Palin. While I think my policy analysis was sound (as in, based on ISSUES, she should not be attracting many people that the Republicans didn't already have anyway), I underestimated the personality and thirst for something different factors.
More than anything else, I guess McCain's campaign needed a burst of energy. Obama has been on the scene for so long through the eternal campaign season that his novelty had worn off. So McCain comes along with the new and exciting Palin. Shrewd move, it turns out. It is now McCain that looks like the refreshing and different pick. He would not have created such excitement with Romney (who I initially thought he should have picked). More importantly, the Palin pick has seriously knocked Obama off his game. He doesn't like not being the only rock star in this race.
The 20% swing of white women from Obama to McCain since Palin joined the ticket is huge. Frankly, I don't understand it. These women don't seem to understand the issues. But I'll take 'em if it helps McCain. It has put McCain in front of or drawn him dead even with Obama in most polls, although it appears Obama may still hold the advantage in the electoral college math.
It remains to be seen how well Palin holds up under continued scrutiny and in the debate, but so far it seems that Joe Biden has turned out to be the bum pick. I bet the Obama camp now wishes they had swallowed their pride and asked Hillary to join the ticket.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
You're right about one thing: You were wrong to focus on issues. Per Mencken, no one ever went broke (or unelected) underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
Of course, in addition to that, her positive rating has dropped 16 points in the past six days and she's yet to, um, debate Biden or anything. So we'll see. She'll grab the evangelicals, for sure. But with the economy tanking (on top of everything else), most people are just gonna be pissed/afraid/etc., which is never great for an incumbent party.
No, you were right! You nailed it the first time. I'm happy to say that you are now wrong - the personality thing is already wearing thin and will soon be gone. I suspect that a lot of those 20% of the women who swung will swing back after the thrill of the convention speech is gone and they understand where she stands on the issues.
Post a Comment