Sunday, September 14, 2008

Dangerous Hyperbole?

I've had more than a passing interest in the Hurricane Ike hysteria of the past week. First of all, its initial projected path was right at Corpus Christi and then up through San Antonio, where I live. But once it became clear that it was going through Galveston and then Houston, I of course became concerned for my many friends and family in the Houston area. (I may live in SA, but Houston will always be my hometown).

The dire predictions about the storm mounted through the week, and it reminded me of the similar Hurricane Rita predictions of several years ago. Remember Rita? Unless you live in Beaumont, Texas, probably not. It was the massive hurricane later in the same season as Katrina, and was supposed to level Houston. The one where most of the city tried to get out of town. I was living in Houston at the time, and I tried to leave town for San Antonio. After going three miles in three hours on I-10, I called my friend Walter Evans, got off the highway, and ended up hunkering down at his parents' place with his family to await the apocalypse that was sure to come. Then...nothing happened other than losing power for about three hours.

As Ike approached, the good people of Galveston were assured "certain death" if they remained on the island. Last I heard, there were four confirmed deaths as a result of Ike in Texas (less than from the commuter train collision in California on Friday), while there were estimates of 20% of Galveston's population that decided to stay put. Hardly the "certain death" we were all promised.

No doubt, Galveston is devastated. This looks to be the most damage for Galveston since the 1900 hurricane that killed up to 8000. And from what I have been able to see on the news, there does seem to be quite a mess to clean up in Houston. The power is still out and will be out for some time in most of the city. Lots of glass on the streets from blown out windows in downtown. Nothing to scoff at, to be sure. But still. With each of these dire, sensationalist warnings given ahead of each new storm, it makes it less and less likely that people will take them as seriously when The Big One actually does hit the Gulf Coast. I sympathize with the authorities, it is a kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. And weather prediction is still not an exact science. But could they tone down the "you are guaranteed certain death" warnings until they are actually warranted? Am I off on this one? Or are they still that unsure of each approaching storm that they need to hedge their bets to that extreme? Some of the media (always eager to lap up predictions of death and destruction) even questioned that wording, and while the argument was made that if it convinces "a few" people who were planning on staying to change their minds, what about the next time?

On the other side of the coin, I get annoyed watching these yahoos on TV who decided to ignore the evacuation orders and stayed in Galveston, and then beg for help once it becomes life threatening for the emergency personnel to get out there to do their job.


ABOVE: "What's this? Nobody told me a hurricane was coming..."

On a lighter note, my two favorite moments of news coverage. 1. When Geraldo was reporting from Galveston as the storm came ashore, he was knocked on his ass by a wave like a quarterback getting sacked. Awesome. Later that night, he was hit by a piece of debris and he goes "shit, we gotta move out of this damn area," and then composes himself and apologizes for his language. 2. My other favorite was when Anderson Cooper was giving a very serious report from some location in Houston on the night of landfall, and behind him are several drunken revelers waving at the camera and shouting at him. He is visibly annoyed, and says "there are several bars still open here in Houston." They wouldn't leave him alone for the next thirty minutes of his reporting as the camera kept trying to change positions to get them out of the frame.


ABOVE: Geraldo gets undercut by a wave. I've got to hand it to him, he keeps reporting only seconds later. It is funny how YouTube has so permeated the culture that his first comment is "I'm gonna be a star on TouTube now."

Anyway, my best wishes to my friends and family in Houston. I hope you guys are all safe and your property is intact. Once you have the capabilities and have the time to check in with GNABB, as I am sure that it is top on your list of priorities, we would love to hear from you about your experiences and thoughts on this issue.

10 comments:

pockyjack said...

OUr house is OK. THe top half of one of our big trees fell off and anonther fell ofer. A few other items fell off the roof but the house is fine.

We are at my sister's house in Rice Military and she miraculously has power!! So we are here with my parents for a while. It is cramped but comfortable

Anyone hear from Walter Evans? He is in Pearland whci was a lot closer to landfall

Anonymous said...

Respectfully, you're way off on this one, Dez. The death toll in Galveston is already going up, and while I can't see it getting past 40 or 50, the 'certain death' warnings are intended partially a) to prevent rescuers from risking their own lives to save the yahoos and b) to empty the island of occupants so that there won't be thousands of people on the ground after the storm creating a public health hazard. This is precisely what's going on now. The sewers are overflowing, there are packs of stray dogs wandering around, no clean water, etc., and when there are thousands of people sheltering on the island the authorities have to worry about them, which takes away from the other repair work.

Having stayed in Houston for the storm, I think you are underestimating the damage. 80% of the city is still without power after three days, and this is much more than an inconvenience, particularly for the elderly or people who need to keep medication refrigerated, etc. Bill White and Ed Emmett did a very good job. FEMA seems to have dropped the ball as usual, and you can count me unimpressed with Centerpoint Energy. I think I've seen exactly two of their crews in town over the last three days.

Dezmond said...

Interesting. I don't really know much other than what was reported on the news. At posting time of this post on Sunday, the news was reporting only a handful dead, fewer than on the commuter crash in California.

My uncle is still without power, but he's got a generator at his place so he can run the essentials. He said his neighborhood had a few trees and branches down, but other than the electricity issue, things were alright in his part of Houston.

I was in Houston during Alicia back in the 80's. I remember being without power for over a week, so I sympathize.

I guess I was just saying that with each sensationalized Storm of the Century on its way and with "certain death" warnings...each time fewer people will take those warnings seriously when the Apocalypse predicted does not, in fact, come to pass. 40 to 50 deaths out of the thousands that stayed in Galveston does not equate to "certain death" to me.

Anonymous said...

Point taken. There was a woman interviewed in the NYT who was complaining that the evacuation orders didn't specify exactly what those who stayed would have to face (she didn't know about the sewage, disease, lack of hospital access, etc.), so she obviously didn't buy into the "certain death" warnings. It might actually be more effective to state exactly what those who stayed could expect.

Anonymous said...

Alright, I'm back. Everyone is safe, but my house is going to take a while to get back to its former condition. My fence is gone. Many of my trees are now standing at 45 degree angles, with a good number of broken limbs. One of my rain gutters has been twisted into some giant, bizarre piece of concept art. And, worst of all, we have quite a bit of water damage inside the house. At first glance, I would say that most of the carpeting, baseboards, and crown molding are going to need to be replaced, along with a good percentage of the sheetrock.

We didn't notice most of the water damage, until we got our power back on. Now, it is hard to ignore, as the enitre house smells of mildew.

As I said, we did finally get our power back on yesterday (after four days), but we still don't have water. So, I haven't showered or shaved in going on five days now, which I'm sure is pleasant for everyone around me. Luckily, we actually heeded the advice of filling our bathtubs with water before the storm. So, we have been able to flush our toilets, which has been nice. I honestly don't even want to imagine the alternative.

I am absolutely amazed at the amount of damage that was caused by this storm. I can't even drive to the front of my neighborhood without dodging trees, and street lights, and business signs. It's a little surreal trying to find a place that is open, and having to drive around the "T" from the Target sign, which is now lying in the middle of the road. As I was saying to Pocky on the phone the other day, this was actually a minor hurricane on the scale of things. I can't even imagine what a city looks like that is hit by a mjor storm. It must be horrific.

As for the death toll, just get ready. The only reason it's as low as it is now is beacause half of Galveston is still under water. They are estimating that 40% of the residents stayed on the island, and I have to believe that any of those on the West End almost certainly did not make it through this storm.

I have mixed feelings about Galveston, though.

It is hard for me to feel terribly for those that stayed behind, because they did know what was coming. And, I find it ridiculous when I see those that stayed who are now complaining to anyone who will listen about how they are not getting services fast enough. You know what, moron, you're not supposed to be there in the first place!

On the other hand, I watched a press conference on Wednesday from the mayor of Galveston who seemed to be saying that they did not believe that the storm was going to be that bad. People should leave if they felt uncomfortable, but otherwise it was fine with the city if they just wanted to stay in their houses and watch the whole thing. Then, the next day, she comes back on the television, and says basically, we changed our minds, everyone needs to get out now.

Personally, I think she handled the whole thing horribly, and I think she is at least partially to blame for the large percent of residents who stayed on the island.

Dez, I know you (like me) were one of those people who always secretly wanted to see a big storm. Who actually thought it might be fun. Well, it's not fun. There is nothing fun about it. And, whatever they are saying on the news (which I haven't seen, because I did not have power, and still don't have cable), can not possibly encapsulate how terrible this actually is. It will be months before my family's life returns to "normal", and for the residents of Galveston (those that survived), I have to imagine it could be years.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

On a lighter note, one thing that will make you happy, Dez...

My outdoor cat, Echo, has now become an indoor cat.

The idea was to just let her in during the storm, but now she has made it clear that she has no intention whatsoever in going back out.

Dezmond said...

I'm glad all of you are alright. I talked to Big Jim tonight, by the way, and they are OK as well. They've got a generator hooked up to their fridge and a wall AC unit and they are sleeping next to it in the poker room. No power (obviously), but their house was minimally damaged. Paul's alright. Jim says Ferris already has electricity back, but has water issues. Just thought I'd update you on some more folks.

You are right, Walter. I've always wanted to be in a Big One. But as a visitor. So my house and possessions are all OK, but I can still be in the awesome excitement of mother nature's fury. You have to admit, taking your house out of the equation, it would be exciting to be in the Big One. Assuming you survived in the end. That is why being one of those storm chasers would be cool. Or Geraldo.

I am pleased that Echo was able to take full advantage of these circumstances and work her way inside on a permanent basis. Good girl.

On a serious note, I am sorry that you have the damage to your home. Let me know if I can be of any assistance.

pockyjack said...

Waler, You did not tell me about the water damage. If you need help ripping that stuff out, let me know, I have experience. You need to get that stuff off your walls soon or you will have major health issues

Anonymous said...

We're working on it. We're already getting all of the insulation out of the attic, because it was soaked. We've got a contractor coming in this weekend to try and evaluate the extent of the damage. It might not be as bad as we had originally thought, because the mildew smell is beginning to diminish.

I hadn't mentioned the water damage to you, because we really didn't know. We had no power yet, so we hadn't seen the brown water stains or the warped and cracked baseboards and molding. Plus, the damage became more and more evident as a few days went by. Truthfully, there was so much going on when I talked to you that I just didn't think about it. But, during the storm, we had water coming into the house from light fixtures, smoke detectors, the attic door, the front door...you name it. We had towels, buckets, pots and pans all over the place.

However, Mrs. Evans has been doing some thorough cleaning while I've been at work, and the smell is definitely getting better. So, we may have gotten off lucky. There will certainly be some wood and sheetrock that will have to be replaced. But, it may not be as bad as I had orginially feared.

I appreciate your offer, though, and I will definitely let you know if I can use your help.