Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Dez Predicts the NBA Finals

This should be a fantastic NBA Finals. At the beginning of the playoffs I would not have said that, even if you told me it would be the Miami Heatles vs. the San Antonio Spurs. I have said all year that the Miami All-Stars would run away with the title. Now, I'm not so sure. The Heat have looked surprisingly vulnerable, last night's pulverization of the Pacers aside.

And The Spurs have to be the feel good story of the season. Conventional wisdom (including here in San Antonio, by the way) was that their time had passed. But they have been nearly unstoppable in these playoffs so far, losing only two games on their way to the Finals. Tony Parker is playing as good as he has ever played, Tim Duncan looks about five years younger (which is ten years in basketball years) and has played like a man possessed in pursuit of his 5th ring. This team is as deep as any of their other championship teams. Crucially, they have also had about ten days off waiting for the results of the Eastern Conference Finals. I know there is the issue of rust vs. rest, but for The Spurs rest is most important. They should be good to go. I also think Gregg Popovich is the savviest coach in the NBA.

These two teams haven't really played against eachother all year. When the Spurs went to Miami, Pop sat Duncan, Parker, Ginobili and Leonard (no, he actually put them on a plane and flew them home ahead of time), The Spurs bench still almost beat Miami's starters in a very close game, and Popovich got fined. In return, when Miami came to SA, the Heat cheekily held Wade and Lebron out, Miami beat The Spurs in a very close game. Point is, these teams have not faced eachother full strength.


ABOVE: Lebron James has proven to be the best player in the NBA. On the planet. In the universe. He could go to Krypton and take on Superman one on one.

Yes, The Heat have the best player on the planet in Lebron. But Wade and Bosh are not 100% and last night aside, they have not been strong these playoffs. The Spurs have the advantage in the middle (The Heat's weakness, as The Pacers exposed). The Spurs have arguably the best point guard in the league in Parker (at least how he has played in the playoffs, and how he played in the first third of the season prior to an injury). The Spurs also have the depth advantage and coaching advantage. But then there still is Lebron.


ABOVE: One more time?

I think this thing could easily go seven and it is a toss-up, and I still hate The Heat. I like the slogan I saw on signs in Indiana, "built, not bought." The Spurs have also been carefully constructed to be one of the most successful sports franchises in history (look at winning percentage and playoff success over the last 15 years). Every time I might soften my stance on Miami, I then remember their championship celebration before Lebron, Wade and Bosh had even played a game together. The smoke, the rising platforms, the dancing. Lebron smugly guaranteeing five to six championships. Therefore, since it really is a toss-up, I guess I'll be a homer...

Dez Says: San Antonio in seven.

3 comments:

JMW said...

I realized during the game last night that I guess I'm rooting for the Spurs. I've always been bored by San Antonio, and I actually want LeBron to win a bunch of titles, because I think he's truly a singular talent. And I don't think he's a bad guy. But there's something about that Miami crowd, and that court, and much of the rest of the team. I don't know. I'm still weirdly torn but don't feel very strongly either way.

Dezmond said...

I don't get the "spurs are boring" thing. At least not this season. The way they move the ball around is artistry in motion. Parker and ginobili boring to watch? Then who is exciting? Duncan is so solid. If you love real fundamental basketball, then you should enjoy the spurs.

JMW said...

You're right, these Spurs are fun to watch, especially when Parker is really playing his best. I think that's an old bias I have. I mean, let's face it -- I love a lot of things about Tim Duncan, but the Big Fundamental is a nickname that betrays how boring (if effective) his game was, even at his peak.