Well, as a long suffering Houston fan, I should have expected the Rockets to make the absolute worst of their opportunity last night. They get to open on the road in Portland. Woo hoo. And we can't even blame She-Mac this time around.
Aside from the top spots in each conference, there is quite a bit of intrigue in the 2-8 slots. Here are my predictions...
THE EAST
Cleveland (1) handles Detroit (8) in 5. Iverson is poison on a team. Boston (2), even with Garnett out for the playoffs, can still handle Chicago (7) in 6. Orlando (3) is also injured, but they can still get by Philadelphia (6) in 6. Atlanta (4) and Miami (5) will be the most interesting match-up in the first round of the East. The reason why Wade should be seriously considered in the Kobe-Lebron MVP discussion is that he has worked with so little around him. This is kind of a toss-up, but I'd love to see Atlanta get to the second round, so I give the home team the edge and say Atlanta in 7 (pushed to seven solely because of superhuman Wade).
In the next round, Cleveland takes care of Atlanta in 5. The Boston v. Orlando match-up is interesting, since both are injured teams. Assuming KG is really done, I have to go with the underdog and give it to Orlando in 7.
Then Cleveland beats Orlando in the East Finals in 5.
THE WEST
Lakers (1) sweep Utah (8). Denver (2) finally advances beyond the first round against a disappointing New Orleans (7) team that has lost its juju in 6. San Antonio (3) v. Dallas (6) is tough to call. You've got SA without its play-off X-Factor Ginobili and Duncan not at 100% against a Dallas team that is soft or dangerous, depending on the night you are watching. SA has traditionally had Dallas' number and they have home court, so I'll go Spurs in 7, but I'm not confident in that pick. Portland (4) v. Houston (5) would be fun to watch if I weren't a Rockets fan. I will be too nervous (and probably pissed off) to enjoy it. That will be a great series. Young, dangerous, but inexperienced up and comers (Portland) vs. rough and ragged. As much as I would love for the Rockets to get out of the first round for the first time in the T-Mac era without said T-Mac, I just don't have confidence that they will do it. Not with Portland having home court and nothing to lose. Portland in 7.
In Round 2, Portland will give The Lakers a tough time. Portland has beaten L.A. twice in Portland, and they present match-up problems. Plus, all of the pressure will be on the Lakers. Could be a fun series. Lakers in 6. Denver and SA is tough to call with SA not at full strength. Billups will be the difference here combined with home court for Denver. Denver in 7.
Then the Lakers will sweep Denver in the West Conference Finals.
FINALS
The Lakers are the only team that has beaten Cleveland at home this season (I don't count Philadelphia's victory there last night since the entire starting line-up of the Cavs didn't play). In the Kobe v. Lebron debate, I think Lebron is the greatest player on the planet. But Kobe's got a better team, and Kobe has more desire to win than Lebron does. I say Lakers win the championship in 6.
Disagree? Agree?
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5 comments:
O ye of little faith. I think Houston will beat Portland.
After last night's stomping, perhaps you are right.
I mean to react sooner, and now I have a full day of games underneath my belt, which I realize isn't fair. (I don't know any of today's results, though, if there are any -- I just got back from my first trip to the new Yankee Stadium. Very nice.)
I don't disagree strongly with anything you have here, but these wouldn't all be my picks. I did like Houston even before last night, because I think Portland is too young and not that dangerous (at least not yet). I like the Mavs, in a biased way, but that was a big win last night. No Manu is a big hit to the Spurs, I think. He's so versatile and so clutch. Lakers over Utah, of course. (I'd normally say Utah is kind of dangerous, but they really collapsed. It mystifies me.) OK, I like New Orleans over Denver. A little. Not because I'm a Hornets booster, but because Denver would scare me -- they score a lot and give up a lot of points. That's not often a formula for success in the playoffs, when teams start actually playing defense. Also, think of everything that went wrong for the Hornets this season and they were still only five games worse than Denver. But still, mile-high home court advantage, etc. Should be a good series.
(This is going to be a long comment. Sorry.)
In the east, it's a mess. The Celtics are obviously vulnerable, as yesterday showed -- not just because of Garnett, though that's huge enough, but because they are old to begin with and not quite as motivated after last year, etc. Orlando, yes. Not sure of their injuries, but I love Dwight Howard. I like Atlanta, as you know, but D-Wade is a tough first draw. That's a good series. Cleveland, yes.
The weird thing is, I don't like anyone to win the whole thing. Lakers are great, but I feel like the Boston series last year really showcased their weakness. And there's always that tension between Kobe and the team dynamic, which gets exposed more down the stretch of a tight playoff game... Meanwhile, Cleveland:
This is my big disagreement with you. Wade had an awesome year, don't get me wrong. But you wrote: "The reason why Wade should be seriously considered in the Kobe-Lebron MVP discussion is that he has worked with so little around him." But that's exactly what makes LeBron so sick, and his team won 23 more games! Wade has Beasley and Chalmers, two promising young players, and a veteran like Haslem -- and had Marion and J.O'Neal for part of the year, etc. Not terribly much, I agree. But the Cavs roster without LeBron just boggles the mind: Mo Williams, Ilgauskas, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao, Szcerbiak... need I go on? I still have no idea how that team won 66 games. That is a scrap heap, at best. Without James, they have a mirror record -- 16-66. Unbelievable.
OK, I'm done now.
No apologies for the long comment, I like those. It gives us stuff to discuss.
And true, no fair, you already had the first games to consider when you wrote your comment.
I, along with many other Rockets fans, were dreading the Portland match-up. And everyone here in SA were so relieved that we ended up with Dallas instead of Portland. You should have heard the sports talk radio around here: "Spurs really dodged a bullet." "Mavericks, no problem. Getting as far as they did in '06 was a fluke anyway..." But after watching yesterday's games, I am glad Houston ended up with Portland instead of Dallas. Portland is not quite ready for prime time, which is good news for the Rockets. I consider this season a success if The Rockets get out of the first round. to do that without McGrady...what a wonderful kick in his small testicles.
MAvs obviously have the momentum, but you aren't safe until it is over when you are playing The Spurs. Lots of ball to be played in this series.
Denver-New Orleans will be great. I've got Denver going all the way to the West Finals.
I've got to disagree with you on Lakers. They are pretty much unstoppable this year. I think they learned a lot from last year's experience, plus throw in Bynum? Forget about it. It's a done deal.
good point with Wade v. Lebron. Suffice it to say that both The Heat and Calvaliers would be at the bottom of the standings without Wade and Lebron, respectively. I was just saying that Wade needs to be in the discussion. But I'd still give it to Lebron.
Any discussion that doesn't include Wade is an insane discussion. He had an amazing year.
I think the S.A. sports radio people must be even dumber than sports radio people in other cities. They saw that distinct an advantage vs. Dallas instead of Portland? And they thought Dallas was a fluke in '06?? (The fluke was that they didn't win it all.) Anyway, yeah, tons of ball to be played in that series. Those teams go at each other something fierce (one of several reasons the S.A. people shouldn't have been "thrilled" to get Dallas.)
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