Oscar Predictions

I generally ignore most awards shows, but there is something about the Academy Awards that still grabs my attention every year. Not that I think they always make the right decisions, because often they do not. But they seem to have more relevance to the world of movies than, say, the Grammys do to relevant music or the Emmys do to good TV. This year's Oscar nominees were announced earlier last week, so here are my thoughts and predictions on some of the major races...

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
For some reason, year after year, the Best Supporting Actor category is full of great performances. Hoffman and Brolin are always great, but for me the race is between Downey and the late Ledger. Downey took a risk in "Tropic Thunder", because that was a role that could have easily backfired if not done properly. Very funny. But Ledger was a large part of what made "The Dark Knight" so memorable.
Should Win: Ledger
Will Win: Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Some strong actresses here, but to be honest, I haven't seen many of these. But that is never a barrier to predicting Oscar choices if you understand the politics of the Academy. The "Doubt" candidates will probably split the votes, so my frontrunners would be Tomei and Cruz.
Should Win: Don't Know
Will Win: Cruz

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langela, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Would the Academy really embrace Rourke after his long decades out in the cold? The Golden Globes did, but I am not so sure about the Oscar crowd.
Should Win: Rourke
Will Win: Penn

Best Actress
Ann Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Some strong, popular actresses to choose from this year. Hathaway is very talented, and Streep is always a threat (she has been nominated more than any actor or actress in Oscar history). But Winslet had a great year with both "Revolutionary Road" and "The Reader." Oscar voters may want to reward her for both performances.
Should Win: Don't Know
Will Win: Winslet

Best Director
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Stephen Daldrey, "The Reader"
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
The big question is always whether the Best Director and Best Picture will be the same, or will the Academy try to honor two films by splitting the vote in these two categories. Since this year doesn't have a clear dominating film (like "Titanic"), I think they may try and split the Director and Picture wins this year. Therefore, based on my pick for who will win Best Picture...
Should Win: Don't Know (I still need to see more of these)
Will Win: Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Picture
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
As I said above, there is no strong frontrunner this year. I've heard mixed things about "...Button" and have no desire to see it whatsoever. I really want to see "Frost/Nixon," but it does not strike me as a Best Picture winner. "The Reader" surprised a lot of people with the nominations it got, so that is probably its prize (just getting nominated). The two leaders are "Milk" and "Slumdog Millionaire," but Hollywood probably can't resist a biopic about a gay hero. Plus they love Sean Penn.
Should Win: Can't say yet, need to see more of them
Will Win: "Milk"

Your thoughts? Preferences? Snubs? I thought "Dark Knight" would slip in as the dark horse in Best Picture.