Dez's Oscar Predictions

There was a time when I would have seen a majority of the nominated films for any given year. Not so this year. But I have always maintained that not having seen some of the films is no handicap when predicting Oscar winners. As long as you are relatively aware of how certain films have been received and you understand Hollywood politics, you've got a good shot at getting most of them right. So, here goes...

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds).

Dez Says: Damon. I think it is between Damon and Plummer. While Plummer is a respected vet who has never been nominated before (and the Academy often likes to make up for past mistakes with so-called "career" awards in the guise of an Oscar win), Damon is much respected for his range and acting chops, and he's acting in an Eastwood vehicle, which is always a bonus.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air) and Mo'nique (Precious).

Dez Says: Mo'nique. The Up in the Air chicks will split votes, and Cruz won last year. This is often the category where they like to reward respected films that may not win anywhere else.

Best Actor
The Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus) and Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker).


ABOVE: Bridges gets the Oscar this year

Dez Says: Bridges. This category, as usual, is filled with some heavyweights and it should be an interesting race. Freeman is just below Jesus as far as how much people love the guy, and Clooney has it all. But Jeff Bridges is a true original who manages to be both an entertaining individual (a walking bong hit) and incredibly respected as an actor. I haven't seen this film, but I hear he is outstanding in it. He's also been nominated four times but yet to win. It's time. Plus, voters may just want to see what the hell he'd say up at the podium.

Best Actress
The Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia).

Dez Says: Man, this is tough. The smart money would probably be on Bullock, but I've got a feeling that Sidibe's story may be too enticing for many voters to pass up. Perhaps her reward is the nomination itself, so if I had to pick one, I guess Bullock, but with a feeling that an upset may be likely. Streep is nominated every time she farts, this is getting ridiculous. She's good, but not 16 nominations good.

Best Director
The Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious) and Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds).

Dez Says: Bigelow. I'm sure the Academy would love to give the first female Directing Award, and she is awesome. Haven't seen the film, but no matter. She is the director of cult classics Point Break and Near Dark, both of which I love. Hell, ex-husband and fellow nominee James Cameron has even said that she deserves to win this year. And that's something coming from the self-proclaimed "King of the World."


ABOVE: I think that Kathryn Bigelow will be the first woman to win Best Director

Best Picture
The Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up in the Air and Up.

Dez Says: Avatar. First of all, I am not sure how I feel about expanding the field to ten this year (as opposed to the usual five). I can appreciate the desire to allow for more popular movies (and smaller critically acclaimed ones) to compete, but all this will do is split those votes, thereby assuring victory for the frontrunners and having fewer upsets. I think this is between Hurt Locker and Avatar, but the voters will find it hard to resist the visually groundbreaking Avatar, no matter how trite the story is. They like to reward the BIG movie of a given year, and Avatar is definitely that. Since Bigelow will probably get the Directing award for Hurt Locker, they'll reward Avatar with Picture. James Cameron now holds the record with the #1 (Avatar) and #2 (Titanic) top-grossing films of all time. Maybe he is King of the World. The only problem that Avatar may have is if lots of the voters didn't bother to go see it in 3-D. Without that, it is a very ordinary film.

Thoughts? Predictions?